Ocean freight: what to expect in 2027 and how to prepare contract negotiations

2026: an unexpected year

At the end of 2025 the consensus pointed to an oversupply of vessels, weak demand and falling rates. Xeneta calculated that the average contractual rates for 2026 would be 20% lower than those of December 2023. However, on February 28 the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz caused an almost total closure of the passage and a fuel (bunker) price increase of around 70%.

“At the worst moment, Xeneta calculated increases of 106% on the Far East‑North Europe route and 192% on the Asia‑US routes.”

The Drewry World Container Index reached USD 4,429 per 40‑foot container on October 29, more than double the USD 1,822 recorded in October 2025.

Where are we now?

According to Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, the market may have already hit its ceiling after the Hormuz crisis, although an immediate collapse is not expected. The evolution is uneven by route:

• Transpacific (Asia‑US): This is where the cooling is most noticeable. Drewry points to further weakness due to softer US demand, and carriers are cancelling sailings to support prices.
• Asia‑Europe: It behaves differently. According to Xeneta, on October 23 spot rates to northern Europe rose 6.8% week‑on‑week and to the Mediterranean 5.8%, although more capacity is returning to the Red Sea. They remain 67% and 33% above pre‑crisis levels, respectively. The explanation is that demand holds: volumes from the Far East to Europe grew 12.2% in the first seven months of the year.

Example of spot rates at the end of October:

• Shanghai‑Rotterdam: USD 3,686 per 40‑foot container.
• Shanghai‑Genoa: USD 4,151 per 40‑foot container.

Outlook for 2027: will freight rates fall?

Reasons for optimism

• Excess capacity: the fleet grows 5.5% while container trade expands only 3% (Xeneta).
• New vessel projection: about 8% of the fleet will be new in 2027 and 11% in 2028.
• Recovery of the Red Sea passage: scheduled capacity reached 448,273 TEU weekly on October 5, just 48% of what it was in August 2023, freeing space in the fleet.
• BIMCO forecasts a capacity growth of 4.6% in 2026 and 9% in 2027, regardless of the situation in Hormuz.

Reasons to be cautious

• Projected declines are modest at 8‑10% over six months (Xeneta), far from 2023 levels.
• Hormuz remains de‑facto closed; any re‑closure will quickly impact prices.
• Carriers tend to keep surcharges introduced during crises, such as fuel surcharges.
• European demand stays stronger than expected, supporting a higher price floor.

The risk of availability

A cheap freight loses value if the container does not arrive on time. In August, the on‑time performance of regular services fell to 29%, four points lower than in July, according to Xeneta. Delays and cancellations force shippers to rethink their bidding strategy, combining price, risk management and resilience.

Recommendations for SMEs before the 2027 negotiation

1. Break down the base freight from the surcharges. Always request the breakdown. Emergency fuel surcharges have been a major part of this year's increase, and the contract should state when they are reviewed or removed if fuel prices fall.
2. Don't lock everything to today's price. If you lock an entire year to current rates and the market eases, you will overpay for months. Consider contracts with quarterly reviews, shorter duration or indexed to an index. The Drewry World Container Index is a common reference in indexed contracts.
3. Combine contract and spot. A stable volume base under contract gives guaranteed space, and spot lets you take advantage of occasional drops for variable shipments.
4. Include cancellation clauses. Will you be re‑booked on the next vessel? With what priority? Is there any compensation? This is the clause most often forgotten and the one that hurts the most.
5. Define a plan B. Another carrier, another loading or discharge port, another route combination. With the gradual return to the Red Sea, transit times between Asia and Europe may change, and it is advisable to discuss this with your freight forwarder before it happens.
6. Start negotiations early. Shippers who wait until the last minute end up accepting what is available. If your contract expires at the end of the year or early 2027, it is a good time to start reviewing volumes, routes and conditions.

In summary

Ocean freight is likely to experience a slight decline in 2027, but it will start from a high level and the drop will be gradual. Excess capacity and the reopening of the Red Sea benefit importers and exporters, while uncertainty in Hormuz, European demand and surcharges remain pressure factors.

For an SME, the key is not to predict whether prices will fall, but how to structure the negotiation: with clear volumes, review clauses and well‑defined surcharges, and with alternatives ready to act against any disruption.

At a3 Logistic we accompany our client companies at every step of the process, from route selection to contract drafting. Contact us and we will review your specific case together.